A close eye on population growth

first_imgProjections that global population growth will level out in coming decades are not assured, an expert said Wednesday, adding that just a one-child difference in global fertility would mean an extra 10 billion people by century’s end.“It matters enormously what we do right now,” said Joel Cohen, a professor at Rockefeller University and head of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller and Columbia universities. “The world is not fixed. Demography is not destiny. We can influence the world of our children and grandchildren by what we do right now.”At today’s rate, population would skyrocket by 2100, to 27 billion from today’s 7 billion, Cohen said. But growth has been slowing steadily in recent decades. Projections see the pace continuing to slow as it approaches the replacement growth rate of about 2.1 children per family, putting the world population between 9 billion and 10 billion by 2100.But relatively small differences in fertility could dramatically change the outcome, Cohen said. A half-child reduction in the fertility rate would see global population peak and then fall back to 6 billion by 2100. A half-child increase in the rate would mean population would continue to climb, reaching some 16 billion by the end of the century.Population growth is a key factor in addressing a host of big problems, but not the only one, Cohen said. Economic issues, cultural influences, and environmental effects also must be considered if nations are to address major issues such climate change, hunger, and the disparity between rich and poor.“To understand the solution of any real human problem, if you don’t have these four elements, you’re going to run aground,” Cohen said.Cohen spoke at the Harvard Kennedy School’s (HKS) Belfer Building in a seminar co-sponsored by the Harvard School of Public Health’s Center for Population and Development Studies and the HKS Sustainability Science Program. The talk was introduced by Sustainability Science Program Chair William Clark, the Brooks Professor of International Science, Public Policy, and Human Development at HKS, and HSPH Dean Julio Frenk, who cited the breadth of Cohen’s scholarship in calling him a “true Renaissance man.”Cohen began by examining the problems of population growth, pointing out that cultural issues play a significant role, with some groups discouraging contraceptive use.Other major trends, however, foster declining birthrates. Better education among women and girls delays their first pregnancy and has been shown to lower the total number of children a woman has. Similarly, birthrate declines are linked to urbanization, because city dwellers have easier access to contraception, and no farm in need of a big family.Sometime in 2007, the balance between city and countryside populations tipped toward the former. Projections show an additional 5 billion people living in cities by the end of the century, which translates to 1.1 million new urban residents a week between now and then.Another trend, Cohen said, is the aging of the world population. With the number of dependents for each working-age individual expected to rise, retiring at age 65 may cease to be an option for many.“There is not going to be any way around people working longer when we have this many elderly people and this [number of] younger people,” Cohen said.Pressure on the planet’s resources doesn’t just come from population growth, Cohen said, it also results from increased living standards in developing nations. Cohen cited several studies showing that resource use will have to double, triple, or even quadruple to bring global living standards near those in industrialized nations.While rising standards of living are linked to declining birthrates, they’re also linked to increased power consumption, much of which is from fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and exacerbates climate change. Declines have been measured in ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica; should either melt, several meters of sea level rise would inundate major cities on all continents.“You can kiss Miami goodbye,” Cohen said.Turning to world hunger, Cohen pointed out that today’s harvests contain enough calories to feed the world. The problem, he said, is in how much grain is diverted to feed livestock and to industry to create biofuels and other materials.“I think we have to do the same thing with hunger that we did with slavery,” Cohen said. “There’s no reason people should go hungry. If you get born, you have a right to eat.”Part of the reason these problems remain unsolved, Cohen said, is that today’s institutions may be inadequate for the job. Governments focus on narrow geographic areas (nations, states, or towns) and operate on short time frames — the next election cycle or, at most, the decade-plus span during which a child is educated. Corporations, on the other hand, can have a global reach, but tend to be focused on specific resources, like a fishery or industry. While some companies plan for the longer term, many are ruled by the short-term demand for quarterly results.last_img read more

Recap: Once Upon a Time’s Dark Turn

first_imgSign up for our COVID-19 newsletter to stay up-to-date on the latest coronavirus news throughout New York Sunday night’s premiere of Once Upon a Time’s fifth season transported fans from the small Maine town of Storybrooke to the thick woods of the Enchanted Forest, wherein lurked the newly dubbed Dark One: Emma Swan.These days, stories favor “grey characters”–people who weave between the boundaries of morality–like the characters of Game of Thrones or The Walking Dead. In this regard, Once Upon a Time challenged itself by abandoning typical family-friendly tropes and essentially asking the question, What happens when the world’s magical savior becomes its doom?Emma Swan’s (Jennifer Morrison) transformation into the Dark One–or #DarkSwan, if you prefer–has been hyped since last May’s season four finale, when Emma was literally consumed by darkness. The premiere continued to tease that buildup, playing on the idea that evil isn’t born but made.The evil within Emma was personified as an apparition of the original Dark One, Rumpelstiltskin (Robert Carlyle), who served as the devil on Emma’s shoulder. He taunted Emma’s dark side by blatantly quoting Star Wars’ Emperor Palpatine: “Do it. Give in to your anger.” The bow-wielding princess from Pixar’s animated film Brave, Merida (Amy Manson), debuted with a deadly accurate portrayal and devious agenda that further provoked Emma’s rage. Back in Storybrooke, Emma’s family and friends flashed their own dark sides when they resorted to questionable and perhaps extreme actions–such as Hook (Colin O’Donoghue) and Henry (Jared S. Gilmore) freeing the pregnant Wicked Witch Zelena (Rebecca Mader)–all in an effort to find and save Emma.The characters’ internal struggles, alongside Merida’s debut and the introduction of King Arthur (Liam Garrigan) and Camelot, all were weaved nicely into an hour-long setup for the real payoff: the Dark Swan. Consequently, that climax detracted from the characters’ personal stories, touched on through small snippets of dialogue. Everything revolved around finding and saving Emma, which was understandable given the circumstances, but disappointing for fans interested in the show’s many romances.Clothed in a black leather outfit, her blond hair slicked back in a bun, and her pale face greased with an ugly gloss, the once heroic Emma Swan claimed her new title as the Dark Swan–the highlight of the episode. The moment fans had anticipated for so long lasted minutes before finally fading into a magical black cloud.The problem? The good guys lost their memories–again. Six weeks’ worth of memories, actually. No one can remember how Emma became evil or what caused them to lose their memories in the first place. So, the next episode–and probably the rest of the season–will explore Emma’s transformation.While Once Upon a Time will never match the moral ambiguity of Game of Thrones or The Walking Dead, the Dark Swan exhibited enough potential to rival most stereotypical fantasy villains. ABC will likely enforce Emma’s eventual redemption, but Once Upon a Time’s premiere kindled an immoral hope that the Dark Swan shall remain or, at the very least, won’t be held back for the series’ darkest season yet.last_img read more

Arsenal decide to sign Cedric Soares on permanent transfer

first_imgAdvertisement Arsenal are keen to sign Cedric Soares on a permanent deal (Getty Images)Arsenal are planning to sign Cedric Soares on a permanent deal this summer, according to reports.The right-back joined on loan from Southampton in the January transfer window but has not yet made an appearance for Mikel Arteta’s side.Arsenal paid around £1 million as a loan fee to Southampton but Cedric arrived with a knee ligament injury and was unable to take part in friendly matches against Charlton Athletic and Brentford earlier this month due to a facial injury.The Gunners are now confident that they can reach an agreement with Southampton which will keep Cedric on loan for the remainder of the Premier League season.AdvertisementAdvertisementADVERTISEMENTAnd according to ESPN, Arsenal are planning to sign Cedric on a free transfer once his contract expires with Southampton at the end of June.The report claims that Arteta has been ‘impressed by Soares’ professionalism and positive impact’ on the squad and the right-back is being lined up with a three-year deal. Advertisement Comment Cedric has not yet made an appearance for Arsenal (Getty Images)Meanwhile, Arsenal are also signing Pablo Mari on a permanent deal.The Gunners paid a £4.5m fee to sign the centre-back on loan from Flamengo in the January transfer window but have now agreed a £14m deal with the Brazilian club over a permanent move.More: FootballRio Ferdinand urges Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to drop Manchester United starChelsea defender Fikayo Tomori reveals why he made U-turn over transfer deadline day moveMikel Arteta rates Thomas Partey’s chances of making his Arsenal debut vs Man CityBut despite Mari’s season-ending injury, Arteta insists that has not had an impact on Arsenal’s decision.‘This cannot be affected just because a player gets injured doing his job and defending our club,’ said the Arsenal manager.Follow Metro Sport across our social channels, on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. For more stories like this, check our sport page. Arsenal decide to sign Cedric Soares on permanent transfer Metro Sport ReporterTuesday 23 Jun 2020 5:15 pmShare this article via facebookShare this article via twitterShare this article via messengerShare this with Share this article via emailShare this article via flipboardCopy link1.1kShareslast_img read more

Five-bedder for cost of Sydney unit

first_img21 Kennedy Street, Brighton. Picture: Realestate.com.auTypical of the Brighton area, the home has large spaces for entertaining and lounging including a balcony overlooking the pool and tropical garden and a large timber deck.The house was built six years ago and has a gourmet kitchen, guest bedroom, home office, private media room and spacious laundry with large storage capacity.The property has solar power, solar hot water and a plumbed water tank and also has a dual driveway plus drive through access to the rear garden. 21 Kennedy Street, Brighton. Picture: Realestate.com.au 21 Kennedy Street, Brighton. 21 Kennedy Street.The three-bathroom, double garage home at 21 Kennedy Street, Brighton, sold for $1.18 million last week, according to Realestate.com.au data.More from newsFor under $10m you can buy a luxurious home with a two-lane bowling alley5 Apr 2017Military and railway history come together on bush block24 Apr 2019For that type of money, a buyer in Sydney would be in range of a one-bedroom unit at 1405/5 York Street, Sydney (price guide $1.1-$1.2m) or a two-bedroom unit at 4/47 Buckingham Street, Surry Hills (price guide $2m). 21 Kennedy Street, Brighton. Picture: Realestate.com.auA NEW South Wales family plans to move to Brisbane after scoring a five bedder in a beachside suburb for less than a one bed Sydney apartment.The six-year-old home which has nine-foot high ceilings is in beachside Brighton, a suburb that has seen a surge in demand from young families. 4/47 Buckingham Street, Surry Hills. Picture: Realestate.com.auReal estate agent Marc Gregory of Purple Bricks said the home was put up for sale by tender and had three written offers.“It was only purchased $995,000 18 months prior, and so it ($1.18m) was a bit more than we expected,” he said.Mr Gregory said the sellers had tidied up the yard but did not have to do too much more to the property.“The area is popular with young families and the local school is very much in demand. Interstate activity is good, it’s quite strong at the moment. We’re really busy. I had record listings last month.” 21 Kennedy Street, Brighton. Picture: Realestate.com.au 1405/5 York Street, Sydney NSW. Picture: Realestate.com.au 21 Kennedy Street, Brighton. Picture: Realestate.com.aulast_img read more

Matchbook secures Jockey Club multi-race title sponsorship

first_img UKGC lifts Matchbook suspension August 12, 2020 Share UKGC suspended Matchbook licence over AML & Risk assessment failures April 8, 2020 Mark Brosnan ends Matchbook CEO tenure  May 19, 2020 Submit Share Mark BrosnanOnline betting exchange Matchbook (Matchbook.com) has expanded its presence within UK racing by agreeing a multi-race title sponsorship with British racecourse operaor The Jockey Club.Announcing the partnership, Matchbook marketing detailed that the exchange had secured title sponsorship of 16 fixtures at Sandown Park and Kempton Park racecourses. Furthermore, Matchbook will sponsor a number of Jockey Club syndicated races at Kempton throughout 2017.The blue-chip sponsorships under the terms of the deal are the Imperial Cup day at Sandown Park on 11th March, and the Brigadier Gerard Raceday at Sandown Park on 25th May, which features the Group Three Brigadier Gerard Stakes and Group Three Henry II Stakes.The Jockey Club has been allowed to sanction Matchbook as a title sponsor for its racing events, as the operator is part of UK racing’s ‘Authorised Betting Partner’ (ABP) scheme.Mark Brosnan, CEO of Matchbook, commented on the sponsorship: “These sponsorships are part of Matchbook’s commitment to be the betting exchange for horse racing with consistently standout pricing on favourites every day in UK and Irish racing.“It’s important to us, and our customers, that every horse racing bet with Matchbook contributes to the future growth of British Horseracing and being an ABP is just one of the ways we can demonstrate our commitment to the sport.”Phil White, London Region Director for the Jockey Club backed Brosnan positive comments, stating;“We warmly welcome Matchbook as our new partner for these important fixtures at Kempton Park and Sandown Park Racecourses,”“We were delighted to be able to sign this deal and expand our relationship on account of their status as an ABP of British Racing and look forward to exciting renewals of these prestigious races.” StumbleUpon Related Articleslast_img read more

WarnerMedia, AEW extend TV deal through 2023, agree to launch second weekly show

first_imgJoin DAZN and watch more than 100 fight nights a year“When we launched AEW one year ago, we wanted to start a revolution that would disrupt the wrestling business, but everyone said that it would take a strong weekly television partner to make AEW real in the eyes of everyone — above all, the fans,” Tony Khan, the president and CEO of AEW, said in a news release. “What virtually no one realized at the time was Kevin Reilly and TNT were committed to this very same movement from Day One, and their belief in us made it possible for AEW to think and act big from the start. Here we are, only three months into Wednesday Night Dynamite, and now we’ve been extended through 2023! We’re now making the ultimate statement that the team of AEW and TNT is here to stay and to bring fans more of the great wrestling that the fans demand and deserve.” Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer is reporting that AEW is receiving rights fees as part of the new agreement, with WarnerMedia paying the wrestling company $175 million for the four-year deal. It also includes an option for 2024 at an increased price.As for the new weekly hourlong show, The Wrap’s Tony Maglio spoke with Kevin Reilly — president of TNT & TBS and chief content officer for HBO Max — who said that TNT is taking over the YouTube series “AEW Dark.” While the series currently streams on Tuesdays, Reilly doesn’t know what weeknight it will air but added that it will be on TNT. And it might not air 52 weeks a year, either.  All Elite Wrestling has had big aspirations since it launched its weekly television show last October. So far, the company has impressed and now it is being rewarded.On Wednesday, AEW and WarnerMedia announced a new four-year deal to air “Dynamite” on TNT through the end of 2023. Plus, the two sides are expanding their relationship and will add another hourlong weekly show at some point this year. Reilly envisions the cable version of “AEW Dark” as being a different kind of show that will include behind-the-scenes and “docu-follow stuff” that will focus on the athletes and the stories.As for what night that show might air, Tuesdays would make the most sense; that night was heavily considered for “Dynamite” before it landed on Wednesdays.Would AEW dare go up against WWE “Monday Night RAW?” TNA Impact did that years ago and quickly retreated after only four weeks, but the wrestling landscape is much different now and AEW is already a stronger company.last_img read more

Power-hitting teenager Marco Luciano gives San Francisco Giants a reason to dream

first_imgPHOENIX — It isn’t the impressive, raw power that’s a sudden surprise at the Giants’ minor league complex in Scottsdale.It isn’t the remarkably quick bat speed, the strong, accurate throwing arm or the ability to handle advanced pitching, either.When the Giants signed Marco Luciano, a gifted shortstop prospect out of the Dominican Republic, they knew all about the tools that would give him a chance to become a major league star. They expected the power, the bat speed and the ability to handle …last_img

Adobe Shakes Up Premiere Pro Training and Certification

first_imgBig changes to the Adobe Premiere training model may mean new difficulties for both the trainers and the students!Are you aware of how trainers for Adobe Premiere Pro (or any Adobe program) get certified?  To start with, they need to have expert knowledge of the the product and then pass the Adobe Certified Expert (ACE) exam to prove this competency.  More info on the Expert exam here.Once you are an ACE you’ll need to get some kind of training qualification so that you can prove to Adobe that not only do you know the knowledge – you can also pass that knowledge on to other people!The recommended Adobe training qualification (and the one I went for) is the CTT+ (Certified Technical Trainer).  Although it’s quite demanding, it’s not a very long course.  More info on the CTT course here.The problem historically had been that once you became an Adobe certified trainer you were left somewhat high and dry with only the ‘Classroom in a Book’ to use as training material.  For Premiere Pro it is only fairly recently that some more good material has started to become available!  This meant that the trainer had to prepare and develop their own program, work out what was most important to teach, what order it should be taught and how long to give to each section of that training.The end result of this is that the trainers all worked out their own course and used their own material…meaning that the people being trained either got a great course with great teaching or a hodgepodge of things thrown together to try and make a half-decent course. In a word, it has been ‘inconsistent’!Changes to Adobe Premiere Pro TrainingFor Adobe Premiere Pro (but not for After Effects and plenty of other products in the product lineup) you may be pleased to know that all this has changed in recent months and with CS6 that change becomes official!  Adobe has finally come up with a formal training program that all trainers are expected to follow, covering what Adobe considers to be essential in any Premiere Pro training course.For those of us who have been doing Premiere Pro training for some years using our own programs, the initial reaction has been that of slight sadness.  All of our own work will no longer needed. But, as Premiere starts to become more and more established as the go-to video editing program for many professional organizations, the establishment of a formal curriculum can only be good news.So, what’s the problem?  Well, Adobe is saying that no trainer will be re-certified to train Premiere Pro CS6 unless they take an extra 4 day training course to double-check their competency.Surely it’s good to check the competency of trainers, right?  While it may weed out some poorer trainers, it also may be cost prohibitive to others.  Current Adobe trainers will have to decide if the cost of re-certifying can be justified for the level of business they are doing in Première Pro.  This may be especially noticeable in areas of the world where the training for this type of things is less in demand in general. Trainers may simply be unable to afford to re-certify. Especially so if they need to add additional travel costs just to take the course.There’s the additional problem of actually finding a certification course!  To date, there have only been 2 courses announced in the USA with absolutely nothing announced for anywhere else in the world.  Yet, trainers are still being told to re-certify by the end of June or lose their certification to teach CS6 onwards.I suspect that for some people (maybe quite a few) this will mean they let their Premiere Pro training certification lapse simply because there isn’t enough business to justify the cost. On top of that trainers may be asking, ‘If I was ok to train Premiere Pro before now, why am I suddenly unable to?   I have a formal Adobe training program and materials to follow!’Potential students may find it a little harder to get certified Premiere Pro CS6 trainers for the next few months while Adobe get their act together.  Even when more trainers are available it will likely cost more for the consumer, as the minimum length for a course has now jumped up to 3 days.  Times…they are a’changing.last_img read more

Free Anamorphic Template for After Effects

first_imgApply an anamorphic effect to your video footage with this free template for Adobe After Effects.What if you could give your project an anamorphic look without expense lenses or adaptors? That’s the goal behind VashiVisuals free After Effects plugin, VashiMorphic40. You can now recreate the unique anamorphic look (a look recently popularized by Wes Anderson – see below), entirely in post production.From the VashiVisuals site:The VashiMorphic40 After Effects project was designed so that every filmmaker, on any budget, can capture the aesthetics and visual style of the Anamorphic lens. The plugins used in this project are included in After Effects or are free to download. I focused on matching the curvature and look of the 40mm Panavision Primo Anamorphic lens.The project settings allow for realistic anamorphic lens curvature, without any resizing or blowing up of the footage (preserving image sharpness). Additionally, there’s built-in settings for obtaining an even more vintage or stylized look with customizable vignette and blurred corners. Many thanks to Vashi Nedomansky for creating and sharing this FREE After Effects plugin![maxbutton id=”3″]Wes Anderson screengrabs from VashiVisuals (click for larger view):last_img read more